On its Nov. 5 third-quarter earnings call, Duke Energy reported a large-load pipeline that has barely moved all year. The total is 15.4 GW. Utility Dive, reporting on the call, described it as "virtually unchanged since the first quarter of 2026." The utility is still building toward one of the largest generation programs in the country. Its earnings release headline says Duke is "executing record generation build to add 16 gigawatts of capacity by 2031."

So the pipeline is steady and the construction schedule is moving. What has not moved much is the conversion of prospective data center and industrial customers into signed contracts. That gap was a central topic of the quarter alongside the earnings numbers.

The Pipeline, by the Numbers

Utility Dive reported that 7.8 GW of the 15.4-GW pipeline is now under signed electric service agreements. That is up 200 MW from the first quarter. The remaining 7.6 GW has not been contracted.

Asked by an analyst what it would take to get that remaining 7.6 GW over the finish line, CEO Harry Sideris said the deals are "going very well, but it's taking longer because of the complexities," according to Utility Dive. The sources do not list which complexities he meant.

Independent coverage from Earnings Whispers called the stalled data center contracts the central tension of the quarter, set against solid near-term results. Its headline said Duke "beats and points to the top of its guidance, but stalled data center contracts temper the growth story."

Duke's own filing names the same issue as a risk. The risk-factor language in the earnings release cites "lower than anticipated load growth, particularly if usage of electricity by data centers is less than currently projected."

What Duke Is Building

The capital program is large either way. Utility Dive reported that Duke's $103 billion spending plan is "heavily focused on natural gas." It covers 16 GW of new generation and storage by 2031. That includes 4.8 GW of batteries and more than 10 GW of gas. According to the outlet, about 5 GW of that gas capacity is already under construction in North Carolina and Indiana. Duke is also exploring a 2.8-GW gas project in North Carolina.

Spending is speeding up. CFO Brian Savoy said Duke spends about $1.5 billion a month, rising to about $2 billion a month beginning next year, according to Utility Dive. To help pay for the plan, Duke plans to issue $10 billion in equity. Savoy said about one-third of it is already secured.

Not every proposed plant has been approved. Utility Dive noted that North Carolina regulators denied a certificate of public convenience and necessity (CPCN) for a 255-MW gas unit. Utility Dive reported the denial on Sept. 22.

Who Pays: Rate Cases and the Large-Load Tariff

For residential and small-business customers in Duke's territory, the key question is how the cost of new generation is split between existing ratepayers and the large new loads. Sideris framed the growth in those terms in the earnings release. He said it "creates a significant opportunity, and our focus is on making sure that growth benefits everyone - protecting existing customers."

Several rate proceedings are open. Utility Dive reported that settlements under consideration in North Carolina would raise rates by $496 million at Duke Energy Carolinas and $338 million at Duke Energy Progress over two years. In Ohio, hearings are set for January on a $90 million requested increase.

The proceeding most directly tied to data centers is a North Carolina large-load tariff. This is the set of terms governing how very large new customers take service and what they commit to pay. Utility Dive reported that a settlement in North Carolina could result in approval of a large-load tariff by the middle of November, according to company documents.

The Election Question

The call came right after what Utility Dive called a "historic" election night. Sideris told analysts the results do not change the company's direction. "We don't see any changes in that focus or any changes in our ability to work with those that were recently elected," he said, according to the outlet.

The Quarter Itself

The earnings release shows reported and adjusted EPS of $1.99 for the third quarter, compared with $1.81 a year earlier. Duke narrowed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.70 to $6.80. It also reaffirmed its 5% to 7% long-term adjusted EPS growth target through 2030, measured from the 2025 guidance midpoint of $6.30.

Earnings Whispers put quarterly revenue at $9.104 billion and said EPS beat the $1.87 consensus estimate. It also noted that Duke raised the low end of its 2026 guidance from $6.55 to $6.70.

Utility Dive reported that electric utility earnings rose $159 million year over year and that retail electric sales grew 2%.

Why the Flat Pipeline Matters

Generation planned for large-load growth gets built on a multi-year schedule. Customer contracts are signed one by one. Duke's numbers show what happens when those two timelines drift apart. The gas units already under construction in North Carolina and Indiana are moving ahead. Meanwhile, roughly half of the high-confidence pipeline, 7.6 GW by Utility Dive's count, has no signed service agreement yet.

The large-load tariff is a proceeding that bears on that gap. Its terms could affect how much of the risk named in Duke's own filing, that data center electricity use comes in below projections, stays with large customers rather than with existing ratepayers.

What Happens Next

The next on-the-record step is in North Carolina. According to Utility Dive, company documents say a settlement could result in approval of the state's large-load tariff by the middle of November. In Ohio, hearings on Duke's $90 million rate request are scheduled for January, Utility Dive reported. For the remaining 7.6 GW of uncontracted pipeline, Earnings Whispers said management still targets converting it in the first half of 2027.

Sources