American Electric Power used its third-quarter earnings release on Oct. 28, 2026 to announce a $100 billion five-year capital plan through 2031. Utility Dive reported that the figure is up about 30% from the $78 billion plan the company had been working from. The main reason is load. Utility Dive reported that AEP now counts 84 GW of contracted load through 2031, up 22% from 69 GW, and that the largest single driver is SB Energy's proposed 10.4-GW data center campus in Piketon, Ohio.

The quarterly filing (Form 10-Q) AEP made alongside the release describes how that campus would be connected to the grid. It covers three new 765-kV transmission lines, a budget of roughly $5 billion, payment terms that run 20 years, and a set of regulatory approvals that have not yet been granted.

Where the $100 billion goes

Utility Dive put the plan's transmission spending at $37 billion through 2031, up from $33 billion. Gas generation rises to $20 billion from $13 billion, and renewables account for $8 billion. MarketBeat's account of the earnings call breaks the plan down slightly differently. It lists $37 billion for transmission, $36 billion for generation (including a $7 billion increase in regulated gas generation) and $22 billion for distribution. Those three categories sum to $95 billion, so the account does not itemize the full $100 billion.

Per MarketBeat, management said rate base would grow from $87 billion in 2026 to $162 billion in 2031. That is a compound annual growth rate above 13%, which matches the "13%+ rate base CAGR" in AEP's press release. MarketBeat also reported management's statement that about 90% of planned utility investment has reduced regulatory lag through riders, trackers and forward test-year rate cases. Equity issuance is part of the funding mix, and the company pointed to roughly 2% annual dividend growth.

The release itself reported third-quarter GAAP earnings of $2.18 per share and operating earnings of $2.23 per share, compared with operating earnings of $1.80 per share in the third quarter of 2025. AEP set 2027 operating earnings guidance at $6.75 to $7.05 per share and 2028 guidance at $7.40 to $7.70. It also targets 9% to 11% annual operating EPS growth from 2027 through 2031. "AEP is entering our next phase of growth from a position of strength," CEO Bill Fehrman said in the release.

Load is outrunning the fleet

Utility Dive reported that CFO Trevor Mihalik told analysts contracted demand is growing faster than the output of AEP's existing generating fleet. Utility Dive also reported 14.4 GW of active generation requests. Gas generation spending in the plan rose to $20 billion from $13 billion, an increase of about half.

AEP's release says large load contracts could provide up to $21 billion of fixed cost offsets for residential customers. The 10-Q describes the contract structure behind those offsets. AEP filed large-load tariff proposals in eight jurisdictions. Six have been approved, and two are pending: Oklahoma and SWEPCo's Texas service area. The 10-Q says approved and proposed provisions may include contract periods of up to 20 years and take-or-pay minimums covering 80% to 90% of contracted demand.

The Piketon transmission terms

According to the 10-Q for the quarter ended Sept. 30, AEP subsidiaries Ohio Transmission Co. (OHTCo) and Ohio Power Co. (OPCo) signed definitive agreements with an unaffiliated customer in August 2026. The agreements cover building three 765-kV lines to support a proposed 10.4-GW data center campus in Piketon. Utility Dive identified the campus as SB Energy's. The filing's main terms:

  • Capacity: each line adds about 3.2 GW of incremental capacity, per the 10-Q.
  • Schedule: the targeted in-service dates are Dec. 31, 2028, Dec. 31, 2029 and Dec. 31, 2030, one line per year.
  • Initial load: the first 800 MW of load is expected to be served with existing transmission capacity and, per the filing, does not require additional regulatory approvals.
  • Budget: approximately $5 billion, according to the filing.
  • Payment: payment terms extend 20 years after the in-service dates.
  • Collateral: the equipment purchase agreement in effect requires the customer to fully collateralize equipment purchases before the approvals are received.
  • Approvals: the project requires approval from PJM Interconnection, the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

Utility Dive reported that SoftBank and its affiliates will pay for the transmission project, including an 11.35% base return on equity, which the 10-Q says may rise to 11.99% or fall to 10.71% depending on actual versus budgeted project costs and actual versus targeted in-service dates. The 10-Q says the customer is responsible for the project's costs, with no allocation to other OPCo customers.

Three lines of 3.2 GW each add up to about 9.6 GW. With the 800 MW the 10-Q says existing capacity can serve, the total is roughly 10.4 GW, the campus's stated size. The filing does not say how load will be phased on the customer's side beyond the first 800 MW and the line-by-line in-service targets.

Other data center items in the quarter

Utility Dive also reported that AEP's 702-MW Bloom Energy fuel cell project in Wyoming, which is backed by a power purchase agreement with Google, is expected online in 2028. Utility Dive's report lists the project alongside the Piketon transmission build as examples of investment opportunities included in the updated capital plan.

What Happens Next

Utility Dive reported that construction on the Piketon transmission project is set to begin early next year. The 10-Q says the Piketon Transmission Project requires regulatory approvals from PJM, PUCO and FERC. The equipment purchase agreement currently in effect requires the customer to fully collateralize equipment purchases before those approvals are received. The first of the three 765-kV lines has a targeted in-service date of Dec. 31, 2028. Separately, AEP's large-load tariff proposals in Oklahoma and SWEPCo-Texas remain pending, according to the filing.

Sources