Exelon's count of data center load it treats as likely to show up did not change from the second quarter to the third. The longer list of speculative requests behind it got shorter again.

In an earnings presentation filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Oct. 30, 2026, the utility holding company said it has about 11 GW of "high-probability" load. Roughly 9 GW sits at Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) in northern Illinois and about 2 GW is in its Mid-Atlantic utilities. The same slide puts the future pipeline at about 23 GW in current or future cluster studies, split into about 14 GW at ComEd and about 9 GW in the Mid-Atlantic.

That pipeline number has been falling. In its July 31 coverage of Exelon's second-quarter report, Utility Dive said the interconnection pipeline had dropped to about 25 GW from about 43 GW in May. On the third-quarter call, Chief Financial Officer Rob Kleczynski addressed the latest decline. "The reduction is in the cluster study from 25 to 23 gigawatts. It's our process working," he said, according to the Motley Fool transcript.

Two tiers of load

Exelon reports data center demand in two tiers. The 11 GW high-probability tier is load the company considers firm enough to plan around. For ComEd, the presentation defines it as projects in advanced design or covered by Transmission Security Agreements (TSAs) approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The 23 GW tier is requests still moving through cluster studies, the batch process utilities use to study large interconnection requests together.

The presentation says about 45% of ComEd's high-probability load is covered by TSAs, backed by about $1.2 billion in collateral. Utility Dive's report on the second quarter described about 4 GW with signed TSAs and $1 billion in collateral at that point. The third-quarter slide also says FERC has endorsed the TSA framework, and that PJM Interconnection fully approved the large load adjustments Exelon submitted in 2025 and 2026.

The high-probability figure was itself cut sharply earlier in the year. Utility Dive reported that in the second quarter it fell nearly 40%, to about 11 GW from 18 GW at the end of 2025. The same report said ComEd told FERC on July 24 that it had canceled a TSA with PowerHouse Hillwood Holding.

Timing is the other key point. According to the Motley Fool transcript summary, the 11 GW is high-probability load through 2034, and about 10% of it is expected online by 2028.

Northern Illinois growth and the supply question

Exelon's presentation cites about 28% compound annual growth in northern Illinois data center load from 2022 through 2026 year to date. Its timeline of milestones includes a ComEd 765 kV transmission expansion, a 1 GW Illinois data center from Tract listed under Jan. 16, 2026, and a proposed battery storage project of up to 500 MW in New Jersey, owned by Atlantic City Electric (ACE). Utility Dive had also reported ACE's plans for the 500 MW battery in July.

In the earnings release, CEO Calvin Butler pointed to battery storage and utility-generated power as supply solutions. On the call, according to the transcript, Butler called regional progress on supply "too slow."

Collateral rules in PJM are also changing. Per the call, PJM's latest proposal lowered the collateral requirement from 50% to 40%.

The financial picture

Exelon's earnings release reported third-quarter GAAP net income of $0.70 per share, compared with $0.86 a year earlier. Adjusted operating earnings were $0.87 per share, compared with $0.86. The company narrowed its full-year 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance to $2.85 to $2.91 per share. It also affirmed that it expects earnings-per-share growth near the top end of 5% to 7% annually through 2029.

ComEd's adjusted earnings were $412 million, up from $373 million. The release credited higher distribution and transmission rate base for the increase.

The call covered a few more figures. According to the transcript, ComEd's grid plan totals $15.3 billion, and Exelon expects to need $3.4 billion of equity through 2029. In July, Utility Dive reported $12 billion to $17 billion of potential transmission investment outside Exelon's roughly $42 billion four-year capital plan.

State large-load policy

The presentation includes a summary of state policy across Exelon's territories. It says New Jersey signed bills establishing tariffs for large-load data centers and that Delaware passed bills requiring utilities to set a separate large load rate for customers of 30 MW or more. It lists Maryland's next legislative session as starting Jan. 13, 2027.

What Happens Next

According to the earnings call transcript, a final order in ComEd's reconciliation proceeding is expected by Dec. 20, 2026, and an order on ComEd's $15.3 billion grid plan is expected by Dec. 15. In the Mid-Atlantic, Exelon's presentation lists the start of Maryland's legislative session on Jan. 13, 2027. Exelon's next quarterly report will give the next public update on the high-probability and cluster-study figures.

Sources